ASHEBORO N.C. (ACME NEWS) — Scientists are monitoring a newly discovered asteroid the size of a 19-story building that has about a 1-in-83 chance (just over 1%) of colliding with Earth in 2032.
Astronomers first spotted the asteroid, designated ‘2024 YR4’ on December 27, 2024, using the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile.
The ATLAS project acts as an early warning system by scanning the night sky for hazardous asteroids using four telescopes, all with a 50 cm lens and a 110-megapixel camera. There are plans for eight telescopes to be built in total across the globe being able to provide 24-hour coverage. Currently, there are only four, two in Hawaii (Haleakala and Mauna Loa), one in South Africa, and the last one, which detected this asteroid, in Chile.
According to the Center for Near Earth Object Studies, a division of NASA’s JPL Laboratory, the asteroid is estimated to be 40 to 90 meters wide (131 to 295 feet). That is roughly between the length of a commercial airliner, up to a football field, across.
The asteroid had just made a relatively close pass by Earth on Christmas Day, which made it bright enough to be detected. Since then, observatories around the world have been tracking it, with it last being seen by the Nordic Optical Telescope in La Palma on Feb 8, 2025, according to the Minor Planet Center.
According to the latest update from NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO), analysis of asteroid 2024 YR4 indicates that its impact probability with Earth has increased to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. Ongoing observations from ground-based telescopes involved with the International Asteroid Warning Network will continue while the asteroid is still visible through April, after which it will be too faint to observe until around June 2028.
NASA says they will also be utilizing the James Webb Space Telescope to observe the asteroid in March 2025, to get a better idea of its size.
As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are made the asteroid’s impact probability will become more certain. According to the Planetary Defense Coordination Office, “it is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA’s asteroid risk list, maintained by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise.”
If it were to hit Earth, it would be moving at approximately 38,000 miles per hour. The effects would depend on what happens after it enters the atmosphere. It could create a powerful explosion in the atmosphere known as an “airburst.” History shows us two examples of airburst events;
The first, the Tunguska event in 1908, a shockwave from an airburst of a meteor flattened over 50 square miles of pine forest near the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in central Siberia, Russia. The second, was the 2013 Chelyabinsk event in Russia. It was covered by news organizations internationally after the shockwave injured over 1,000 people.
If it reaches the ground, an asteroid that size of 2024 YR4 would be the equivalent of a 40,000 kiloton nuclear bomb, over two and a half thousand times as powerful as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, but short of the largest nuclear bomb ever detonated, the Tsar Bomba, which had an estimated yield of 58,000 kiltons.
Even if asteroid 2024 YR4 does impact earth, its effects would be localized, it would not be an extinction level event, and we would have enough time to prepare prior to impact to attempt to divert it—a technology proven by NASA’s DART mission—or evacuate the impact area.
Observations of 2024 YR4 will continue through early April 2025, after which it will move too far from Earth to be detected by ground-based telescopes. However, scientists are also searching for older images of the asteroid, possibly from a past flyby in 2016. If they find them, they could improve the accuracy of its projected orbit.
The asteroid is expected to make another close approach in 2028, but it will stay at a safe distance, roughly 20 times the distance between Earth and the Moon. Unfortunately, that’s likely too far for radar to provide better tracking.
For now, 2024 YR4 remains a space rock worth watching, but not one to panic over. The odds of an impact are small, and history has shown that as scientists gather more data, those odds tend to shrink. Until then, astronomers will continue keeping an eye on it, ensuring that if anything changes, we’ll know about it well in advance.
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