(Background photo credit: Rusty Elliott via Adobe Stock)
CLAIM / QUESTION

“More people in this state, in our election, voted for Democrats to represent them in the General Assembly than voted for Republicans. “

THE BACKGROUND

During a North Carolina Senate session on Nov. 20, 2024, Senator Lisa Grafstein, a Democrat representing District 13, which includes Wake County, asserted that “most people in this state voted to be represented by a Democrat rather than a Republican” while discussing SB 382. Her remarks prompted applause from members of the public in the Senate gallery, leading the Senate President to call a 10-minute recess and order the removal of the audience. (Applause is prohibited in the galleries at the NC Senate)

When the session resumed, Grafstein reiterated her point, stating, “More people in this state, in our election, voted for Democrats to represent them in the General Assembly than voted for Republicans.”

OUR RATING

TRUE – In the 2024 General election held on Nov 5, 2024, Democrats received more total votes than Republicans in General Assembly races.

OUR FINDINGS

An analysis of precinct election results from the North Carolina State Board of Elections for the Nov. 5, 2024, general election reveals significant disparities between voter preferences and projected legislative control.

In total votes cast for seats in the General Assembly, Democrats received 37%, Republicans 32%, and Libertarians 7%. Despite receiving a smaller share of votes, Republicans are expected to hold 20% more seats in the NC Senate—an additional ten seats—and 31% more seats in the NC House.

This pattern extends to all partisan races statewide. When comparing the total votes cast for each partisan office, Democrats received 44% of the votes, narrowly edging out Republicans, who received 43%.

In the 2024 general election, Democrats received 1,605,992 more votes than Republicans statewide, leading to projections that Democrats will secure key statewide offices, including Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Despite this, Republicans are poised to maintain a disproportionate majority in the General Assembly, a discrepancy Senator Lisa Grafstein attributes to gerrymandering. After the recess, Grafstein reiterated her concerns, stating, “We know that the lack of political balance in the legislature is because of gerrymandering. That was another theft of power that should belong to the people.”

In North Carolina, the state Legislature draws both legislative and congressional districts, and unlike many other states, the governor cannot veto those maps.

In an email sent Thursday, Nov. 21, Senator Grafstein elaborated on the impact of gerrymandering, explaining how practices like “packing” and “cracking” votes can distort election outcomes. “One of the consequences of the practice of gerrymandering is that the ‘packing’ of votes of one party into districts means that those votes have less impact on election outcomes,” she wrote. “By concentrating, for example, Democrats in one district, adjoining districts become easier for Republicans.”

As an example, Grafstein highlighted House District 35 in North Raleigh, which she claims was drawn to exclude Democratic precincts by concentrating them in surrounding districts, enabling a Republican win in District 35. This strategy, known as “cracking,” splits a voting community across multiple districts to weaken its electoral influence.

Grafstein also cited Wilmington, where she says heavily Democratic precincts were removed from competitive Senate District 7 and added to the overwhelmingly Republican Senate District 8. This shift, she argued, enabled Republicans to secure a victory in District 7, which otherwise could have gone to Democrats.

“The number of votes does not change—there are more votes statewide for Democrats—but the outcomes of many races change based on the gerrymandering of the maps,” she wrote, describing the broader effects of redistricting practices statewide.

According to Princeton University’s Gerrymandering Project, North Carolina’s current legislative map earns an “F” grade for partisan fairness, citing a substantial Republican advantage. This imbalance has been facilitated by recent shifts in the state’s judiciary. After Republicans secured two seats on the North Carolina Supreme Court during the 2022 midterms, establishing a conservative majority, Republican lawmakers quickly pushed the court to overturn its previous ruling that partisan gerrymandering violated the state constitution.

The Brennan Center for Justice, a liberal-leaning nonprofit, has called the resulting map one of the most extreme in the nation. Their analysis indicates that the new map, alongside Texas’s, creates an enduring Republican advantage. According to their calculations, even in a strong Democratic wave year similar to 2018, Democrats would struggle to win more than four of North Carolina’s 14 congressional seats. This means Democrats could win a majority of the statewide congressional vote but still secure less than 30% of the seats due to what the center describes as a “carefully engineered gerrymander.”

SOURCES

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